Diabetes, Obesity and Metabolism

Background: GLP-1 receptor agonists (GLP1-RAs) are an established treatment for type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and obesity. Their widespread use is set to increase through both indication expansion and patent expiry. As well as efficacy, it is crucial to understand the safety of this drug class to enable optimal use. Here we demonstrate how a genetic approach can augment signal-detection and post-market authorization surveillance. Methods: We used single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in GLP1R to recapitulate the effect of agonism with GLP1RAs on circulating glucose, glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c), body mass index (BMI) and risk of type 2 diabetes (T2DM) using Mendelian randomisation. We then tested if the adverse effect highlighted by medicines regulators of pancreatitis and the emerging effect of sarcopenia were causally related to GLP1R agonism, using this approach. Analyses were conducted in UK biobank and replicated in FinnGen and All of Us, results being combined using meta-analysis. Analyses were further stratified by a priori risk factors of age and alcohol consumption. Results: Genetically proxied GLP-1R agonism was associated with a reduction in glucose (exp({beta}) = 0.95 95% CI [0.94, 0.97]), HbA1c (exp({beta}) = 0.94 95% CI [0.92, 0.95]), and BMI (exp({beta})=0.98 95% CI [0.97, 0.99]); and a reduced risk of T2DM (OR = 0.82 95% CI [0.79 to 0.86]). Risk of acute and chronic pancreatitis was however increased (OR = 1.10 95% CI [1.01 to 1.20] and OR = 1.05 95% CI [0.95, 1.17], respectively), which varied as a function of age with risk most pronounced in those aged 50-59 years-old (OR = 1.79 95% CI [1.43, 2.24], OR = 1.57 95% CI [1.16, 2.12]) and in drinkers (OR = 1.32 95% CI [1.12, 1.54], OR = 1.36 95% CI [1.12, 1.65]). Risk of sarcopenia also increased (OR 1.34; 95% CI 1.05,1,71). Conclusions: Genetically proxied agonism with GLP-1RAs recapitulated the pharmacological effects of GLP1-1RAs on glycaemic traits, BMI and T2DM risk. This approach supports a causal effect of GLP-1RAs on the well reported adverse effects of pancreatitis and further indicates age and alcohol consumption as risk modifying effects. The less well reported but emerging effect of sarcopenia appears to also be casually related to agonism at GLP-1R. These analyses suggest a genetic approach could be used as an adjunct to signal detection studies to enhance safety regulation as well as personalisation of the use of these drugs.

ImportanceWomen have been under-represented in clinical trials of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2D), and evidence on sex differences in effectiveness of T2D treatments remains limited. ObjectiveTo assess sex differences in comparative effectiveness and safety of four second-line antidiabetic agents: glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1RA), sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitors (SGLT2i), dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitors (DPP4i), and sulfonylureas (SU). DesignRetrospective cohort study using an active-comparator new-user design, following each participant till treatment discontinuation or end of data. SettingMultinational study across ten real-world databases from the Observational Health Data Sciences and Informatics (OHDSI) network in the United States, United Kingdom, Germany, and Spain. Participants5.15 million adults with T2D who initiated one of the four second-line therapies following metformin during 1992-2021. ExposuresGLP-1RA, SGLT2i, DPP4i, or SU. Main Outcomes and MeasuresCardiovascular effectiveness as measured through 7 outcomes (major adverse cardiovascular events and glycemic control) and safety through 18 outcomes as highlighted by ADA guideline. Hazard ratios (HRs) are estimated separately for women and men using propensity score-stratified Cox models with empirical calibration. Sex differences were tested using Z-tests on log-HR differences. ResultsDrug initiation rates differed by sex with 9.28% of women initiating on GLP-1RA, 11.91% SGLT2i, 27.81% DPP4i, and 50.99% SU; the rates among the men were 5.41%, 12.84%, 24.64%, and 57.10%. No significant sex differences were observed for cardiovascular effectiveness outcomes. Several safety outcomes showed significant sex differences that are consistent across drug comparisons. Focusing on GLP-1RA compared to SGLT2i for brevity, GLP-1RA users experienced the following comparative benefits and risks: higher risk of acute pancreatitis among women (HR 1.39 [1.13-1.70]) while non-differential risk among men (HR 0.91 [0.74-1.12]) with p = 0.005 for the test of difference; non-differential risk of hypotension among women (HR 1.08 [0.98-1.19]) while lower risk among men (HR 0.87 [0.78-0.96]) with p = 0.003. Where no sex differences were found, our findings were consistent with existing evidence. Conclusions and RelevanceThis large-scale multinational study on antidiabetic agents identified clinically relevant sex differences, which are biologically plausible but previously lacked clinical evidence. Our findings reinforce the importance of tailoring T2D management according to sex.

Importance: Glucagon like peptide 1 receptor agonists (GLP 1 RAs) and dual glucose dependent insulinotropic polypeptide/glucagon like peptide 1 receptor agonists have demonstrated what may be considered transformative efficacy in recent randomized clinical trials for the treatment of obesity, yielding substantial weight loss in a majority of participants. However, the extent to which these trial results translate into routine clinical practice particularly within the rapidly expanding direct to consumer (DTC) telehealth sector serving self pay populations remains insufficiently characterized. As access to and affordability of these therapies broaden beyond traditional insurance based care models, evaluating real world effectiveness, safety, and patient engagement among individuals shouldering the full financial cost of treatment is essential for informing future models of obesity care delivery. Objective:To assess long term medication specific weight loss outcomes, including gender specific responses and discrepancies, and explore usage trends in a real world, self pay telehealth cohort receiving GLP 1 RA therapy, using an Observational study design (Retrospective data analysis). Setting and Participants:Retrospective data of patients enrolled in electronic health records (EHR) from Carevalidate, a national US telehealth platform provider for Online TeleHealth companies. The data collected ranged for a total of 703 days from January 12, 2024, to December 15, 2025. The analysis included 572 adults with overweight or obesity diagnosis who initiated treatment with semaglutide or tirzepatide and completed a minimum of 9 months of active follow up. Patients with insufficient follow up or those utilizing insurance coverage were excluded to isolate the self pay phenotype. Exposures: Prescription of semaglutide or tirzepatide (injectable or oral formulations) via synchronous or asynchronous telehealth consultations, titrated according to standard clinical protocols adapted for patient tolerance and financial sustainability. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was percentage total body weight loss (%TBWL) from baseline to the last recorded encounter. Secondary outcomes included categorical responder rates (5%, 10%, 15%, >20% weight loss), weight loss velocity analysis, and telehealth utilization metrics (frequency of encounters and visit intervals) including gender differences in approaching the telehealth program. Results: The final analytical cohort included 572 patients (79.2% female; 20.8% male). Overall, 95.8% (548/572) achieved weight loss, while 3.7% experienced weight gain. At 12 months, the mean %TBWL was 13.8% for the semaglutide cohort (n=450) and 12.5% for the tirzepatide cohort (n=122), with no statistically significant difference between the two medications (P >.05), contrary to standard clinical trial data suggesting tirzepatide superiority. A significant gender difference was observed: females were significantly more in number comprising 80% of the cohort and were likely to be "major responders" (>20% weight loss) compared to males (29.8% vs 5.9%; P <.001). Conversely, males demonstrated significantly higher utilisation rates, attending more frequent encounters (mean 13.5 vs 12.7; P =.028) with shorter intervals between visits (35.6 vs 44.1 days; P =.009) compared to females. Weight loss velocity for both medications peaked during months 1 to 3 (~1.07 lbs/week) and declined substantially by months 12 to 15, indicating a plateau effect independent of the specific agent used. Conclusions and Relevance: Telehealth-managed GLP 1 treatment in a self pay population demonstrates high efficacy comparable to clinical trials for semaglutide. However, tirzepatide outcomes fell short of trial benchmarks, likely due to economic barriers preventing optimal dose titration and lower sample size. The study identifies a discrepancy where females approach the telehealth based self pay system more but males engage more frequently with the digital platform which could be due to inferior physiological outcomes ( less weight loss and more non responders) compared to females.This suggests that while telehealth is a viable model for long term obesity care, the "one size fits all" approach may be insufficient for under responders, who may require distinct titration strategies or tailored behavioral interventions to overcome baseline genetic and biological resistance.

ImportanceSemaglutide, a glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonist (GLP-1RA), is a highly effective medication to treat type 2 diabetes and obesity. However, concerns about potential suicidality persist, creating clinical uncertainty about its neuropsychiatric safety. ObjectiveTo assess risks of suicidality after initiating semaglutide compared to initiating SGLT2i and by duration of continuous semaglutide treatment. DesignActive-comparator, new-user target trial emulation to estimate inverse probability-weighted marginal cause-specific hazard ratios (HRs). For duration-of-treatment analyses, we used clone-censor-weight methods to estimate exposure-adjusted effects. SettingVeterans Health Administration. ParticipantsU.S. Veterans with type 2 diabetes receiving care from March 1, 2018 to September 1, 2025. ExposureInitiation of semaglutide vs SGLT2i; duration of semaglutide use ([&le;]6, 7-12, >12 months). OutcomesIncident suicidal ideation; suicide attempt or death; and a composite outcome. ResultsA total of 102,361 Veterans met inclusion criteria, including 11,478 new initiators of semaglutide and 90,883 new initiators of an SGLT2i. After overlap weighting, baseline characteristics were well balanced between treatment groups (mean [SD] age, 60.1 [11.7] years; BMI, 37.8 [6.8] kg/m2; hemoglobin A1c, 7.0% [1.4]; 85.5% male; 61.9% non-Hispanic White). During a median follow-up of 2.2 years, 9077 incident suicidal ideation events and 696 suicide attempts or deaths occurred. The incidence rate of suicidal ideation was 56.3 and 37.7 per 1000 person-years among semaglutide initiators and SGLT2i initiators, respectively (hazard ratio [HR], 0.99; 95% CI, 0.93-1.06; P = 0.86). For suicide attempts or deaths, the incidence rates were 4.30 and 2.64 per 1000 person-years, respectively (HR, 1.05; 95% CI, 0.84-1.31; P = .86). In adherence-adjusted analyses, sustained semaglutide treatment for more than 12 months, compared with 6 or fewer months, was associated with a 74% lower risk of suicide attempts or deaths (HR, 0.27; 95% CI, 0.14-0.54; P<.001). ConclusionAmong U.S. Veterans with type 2 diabetes, initiators of semaglutide were not observed to have an increased risk of suicidality compared with initiators of SGLT2i. Those with longer semaglutide treatment (beyond 12 months) had decreased risk of suicide attempt or death, suggesting longer term treatment is safe and may protect against for those outcomes.

Aims/Hypothesis: Behavioral and phenotypic characteristics do not fully explain variability in African Americans with youth-onset type 2 diabetes (Y-T2D) treated with metformin with or without liraglutide. We hypothesized that biological heterogeneity, including genetic variation in the metformin transporter OCT1, influences metformin pharmacokinetics and hepatic glucose flux. Therefore, we sought to characterize metformin pharmacokinetics in Y-T2D and evaluate genetic variants known to modulate metformin efficacy in adults to determine the mechanisms underlying variation in treatment response. Methods: We evaluated genetic variants related to metformin transport and mechanisms of action in 30 Y-T2D using a candidate-gene approach to evaluate the association of pharmacogenetic variants with fasting glucose and gluconeogenesis. In a subset of Y-T2D randomized to 3 months of metformin (n=11) or metformin and liraglutide (n=8), we constructed a metformin population pharmacokinetic model and evaluated gene variant associations. Results: A one-compartment first-order absorption and elimination pharmacokinetic model provided the optimal fit. Metformin pharmacokinetic parameters were similar by group and not related to glycemia. The rs628031_OCT1 A allele was associated with greater metformin clearance. The rs622342_OCT1 C allele was associated with lower post-treatment fractional gluconeogenesis ({beta} [95% CI] = -8.8 [-14.13, -3.47] %, Adjusted R2 = 0.56, P = 0.003). The rs7903146_TCF7L2 T allele was associated with greater reductions in fasting glucose among those treated with metformin + liraglutide ({beta} = -1.32 [-2.42, -0.22] mmol/L, Adjusted R2 = 0.8, P<0.002), but baseline glucose and gluconeogenesis (P<0.0001) were the strongest predictors of post-treatment glycemia. Conclusion/interpretation: In Y-T2D, OCT1 gene variants rs628031 and rs622342 were associated with metformin clearance and gluconeogenesis, respectively. TCF7L2 variant rs7903146 may contribute to differences in glycemic response in youth treated with metformin and liraglutide. These findings suggest genetic variants may be important for understanding variable metformin response in Y-T2D.

This updated systematic review and network meta-analysis evaluated the efficacy and safety of obesity management medications (OMMs) in terms of reducing body weight and obesity-related complications. Medline and Embase were searched up to 21 November 2025 for randomized controlled trials comparing OMMs versus placebo or active comparators in adults. The primary endpoint was percentage total body weight loss (TBWL%) at the end of the study. Secondary endpoints were TBWL% at 1, 2 and [&ge;]3 years, anthropometric, metabolic, mental health and quality-of-life outcomes, cardiovascular morbidity and mortality, remission of obesity-related complications, serious adverse events and all-cause mortality. Sixty-six RCTs (66 comparisons) were identified - orlistat (22), semaglutide (18), liraglutide (11), tirzepatide (8), naltrexone/bupropion (5) and phentermine/topiramate (2) - enrolling 63,909 patients (34,861 and 29,048 with active compound and placebo, respectively). All OMMs showed significantly greater TBWL% versus placebo; tirzepatide and semaglutide exceeded 10% TBWL and showed the most favourable glycaemic effects. Semaglutide reduced major adverse cardiovascular events and all-cause mortality. In dedicated complication-specific trials, semaglutide and tirzepatide showed benefit on heart-failure-related outcomes; tirzepatide was associated with improved obstructive sleep apnoea syndrome and semaglutide with knee osteoarthritis pain remission. Tirzepatide and semaglutide were associated with improvements in metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis remission, and semaglutide with improvement in liver fibrosis. No OMMs were associated with an increased risk of serious adverse events. These updated results reinforce the need to individualize OMMs selection according to weight-loss efficacy, complication profile and safety.

Objectives: Diabetes affects over 500 million people globally and glycemia is inadequately managed. Metformin is the most frequently prescribed initial treatment for type 2 diabetes globally, yet glycemic response trajectories to metformin in routine real-world care and predictors of treatment response have not been well described. We aimed to identify glycemic response trajectories in adults prescribed metformin monotherapy as initial type 2 diabetes treatment and predictors of poor glycemic response to metformin. Design: Observational cohort study using latent class mixed models to identify hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) trajectory classes, followed by random forests machine learning to predict trajectory class membership. Setting: US Veterans Affairs Healthcare System Participants: Adults treated with metformin alone for >30 days after diabetes diagnosis with a minimum of two HbA1c measurements from 90 days prior to two years after the first metformin prescription (N=140,413). Exposures: Demographic, laboratory, vital sign, and comorbidity data were included as predictors of metformin response trajectory Main Outcomes and Measures: We included all HbA1c measurements (487,604 total) for two years after metformin initiation to define metformin glycemic response trajectories. Results: We identified three HbA1c trajectories: stably low (89.7% of sample, mean HbA1c decrease from 7.2% to 6.6%), brisk response (7.1% of sample, mean HbA1c decrease from 11.4% to 7.0%), and non-response (3.1% of sample, mean HbA1c increase from 8.9% to 10.8%). Of those in the stably low and brisk response classes at 2 years, 91% maintained HbA1c at approximately 7% on metformin alone for 5 years after drug initiation. Prediction models could accurately predict brisk response (91% accuracy) but not metformin non-response (59% accuracy). Conclusions: Most individuals treated initially with metformin monotherapy have a beneficial and durable glycemic response. Predicting individuals who will not respond to metformin may be challenging but is evident within six months with recommended glycemic surveillance. The findings support current guidelines for HbA1c surveillance when initiating diabetes treatment.

Background Chronic gastritis and duodenitis (CGD) are highly prevalent among patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D). However, the prognostic impact of their comorbidity and the potential role of MRI-derived phenotype-tailored dietary strategies remain unclear. Methods This prospective cohort study included 453,768 UK Biobank participants. Primary endpoints were myocardial infarction, stroke, end-stage renal disease (ESRD), dementia, Parkinson's disease, and all-cause mortality. Time-dependent multivariable Cox regression assessed outcome associations, while additive interaction analyses evaluated synergistic effects between T2D and CGD. Eight healthy dietary pattern scores were analyzed. Latent profile analysis classified MRI-derived body composition phenotypes based on fat distribution and organ volume. Results T2D and CGD were positively associated, and their comorbidity increased risks of cardiovascular events, ESRD, dementia, and all-cause mortality. Additive interaction analyses demonstrated synergistic effects on myocardial infarction and all-cause mortality. The comorbidity was further associated with aggravated lipid metabolic abnormalities and multiorgan atrophy. Higher adherence to the Healthful Plant-Based Diet Index (HPDI) and Dietary Approaches to Stop Hypertension (DASH) diets attenuated the excess mortality risk related to this synergy. Dietary associations varied across T2D, CGD, and comorbid populations, while MRI-based latent profiles modified diet-outcome relationships. A nomogram integrating demographic, dietary, and body composition data demonstrated reliable long-term predictive performance for myocardial infarction, stroke, and all-cause mortality. Conclusions Comorbid T2D and CGD substantially increase adverse clinical risks and exhibit synergistic effects on myocardial infarction and all-cause mortality. These findings support routine CGD screening in T2D care and provide population-based evidence for MRI-derived phenotype-tailored dietary strategies.

Background: Obesity has become increasingly common among US adults with hypertension. However, national data are limited on weight-loss efforts among adults with hypertension and overweight/obesity, and whether these efforts have translated into clinically meaningful weight loss at the population level. Methods: We analyzed repeated cross-sectional data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, 1999-2023. Adults aged 20 years with hypertension and body mass index 25 kg/m2 were included. Weight-loss attempt was defined as self-report of trying to lose weight during the prior 12 months. Among those attempting weight loss, successful weight loss was defined as 5% or 10% reduction in body weight over the prior year. Survey-weighted logistic regression was used to assess temporal trends and associations between strategies and successful weight loss. Results: Overall, 57.6% reported a weight-loss attempt, increasing from 55.9% in 1999-2000 to 60.4% in 2021-2023 (P for trend=0.002). The most reported strategies were eating less food (65.3%) and exercise (52.4%). Among those attempting weight loss, 33.4% achieved 5% weight loss and 14.7% achieved 10% weight loss; neither improved over time (P for trend=0.976 and 0.174, respectively). Weight-loss surgery was strongly associated with success but was rarely reported (0.35%). Eating less fat and changing eating habits were also positively associated with successful weight loss, whereas skipped meals and use of diet foods or products were inversely associated. Conclusions: Weight-loss attempts increased, but clinically meaningful weight-loss success did not improve, highlighting a persistent gap between effort and outcome in hypertension care.

Objectives To estimate population-level eligibility for glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonist (GLP-1RA) medications among adults in Australia, according to Therapeutic Goods Administration (TGA) approved indications for chronic weight management and secondary prevention of cardiovascular disease. Design Cross-sectional analysis of data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics 2022 National Health Survey. Setting, Participants Non-pregnant adults [&ge;] aged 18 years who are usual residents of Australia and living in a private dwelling. Main outcome measures Total number of adults who are eligible for GLP-1RA medications according to TGA approved indications for chronic weight management and secondary prevention of cardiovascular disease, across subgroups defined by body mass index, weight-related comorbidities, and/or socio-demographic factors. Results In total, 39.7% (95% CI 38.4 - 41.0%) of adults in Australia are eligible for GLP-1RA use for chronic weight management, accounting for 7.8 million (95% CI, 7.6 - 8.1 million) individuals. Among those eligible under this indication, 2.9 million (95% CI 2.7 - 3.1 million) adults had no weight-related comorbidities, 3.3 million (95% CI 3.1 - 3.4 million) adults had at least 1 weight-related comorbidity, and 1.7 million (95% CI 1.6 - 1.8 million) adults had at least 2 weight-related comorbidities. The proportion of adults eligible under this indication varied across clinical and sociodemographic factors. Among those eligible under the chronic weight management indication, up to 338.9 thousand (95% CI 271.3 - 406.5 thousand) adults also meet the indication for secondary prevention of cardiovascular disease. Conclusions More than one third of Australian adults are eligible to access GLP-1RAs for chronic weight management, with 3.7-4.3% of adults also qualifying according to the indication for established cardiovascular disease. This study provides a valuable reference to allow policy makers to understand the number of adults in Australia that may benefit from access to GLP-1RA medications under a range of coverage scenarios.

Importance: Despite the benefits of statin therapy in individuals with diabetes, fewer than 70% of adults with diabetes meet contemporary guidelines for statin therapy and reducing low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL) to <100 mg/dL. Evidence describing delays in statin initiation after diabetes diagnosis and associated clinical outcomes may motivate process of care interventions to improve guideline recommended care in individuals newly diagnosed with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2D). Objective: To examine the timing of statin initiation and achievement of LDL <100 mg/dL after diabetes diagnosis, and to determine the association of early LDL reduction among statin initiators with incident atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD). Design: Retrospective observational cohort study using data from 2005-2021 Setting: Veterans Affairs Health Care System (VA) Participants: Individuals with newly diagnosed T2D Exposure: Primary exposure was ASCVD risk based on ACC/AHA Pooled Cohort Equations; secondary exposure was LDL <100 mg/dL in the first year after T2D diagnosis among statin initiators Main Outcomes and Measures: Co-primary outcomes were initiation of statin therapy and achievement of LDL <100 mg/dL within 5 years of diabetes diagnosis; incident 5-year ASCVD was a secondary outcome. Results: Among 100,406 individuals with newly diagnosed T2D, 59,615 were prescribed statin therapy within five years (59.4%), and 44,783 (57.5%) of those with LDL above goal achieved LDL <100 mg/dL within 5 years. Relative to those at low (<7.5%) 10-year ASCVD risk, individuals at intermediate (7.5-20%) and high (>20%) risk were more likely to be initiated on a statin (intermediate: Hazard Ratio [HR] 1.14 [95% CI 1.11, 1.17]; high: HR 1.16 [95% CI 1.13, 1.19]) and to achieve LDL <100 mg/dL (intermediate: HR 1.23 [95% CI 1.19, 1.26]; high: HR 1.34 [95% CI 1.30, 1.38]). Among those prescribed a statin within one year of diabetes diagnosis, achieving LDL <100 mg/dL in the first year after diabetes diagnosis was associated with lower risk of 5-year incident ASCVD (HR 0.84 [95% CI 0.77, 0.92]). Conclusions and Relevance: Gaps in guideline-directed primary prevention of ASCVD arise early following initial diabetes diagnosis. Guideline recommended early LDL lowering among statin initiators was associated with improved clinical outcomes.

ObjectivesIt is not known which clinical features optimally differentiate type 1 and 2 diabetes at diagnosis. We aimed to determine which clinical features differentiate adult-onset type 1 and 2 diabetes at diagnosis and develop classification models combining these features with and without islet-autoantibodies. DesignA prospective cohort study with prediction model development and validation. SettingUK primary and secondary care. Participants1800 adults ([&ge;]18 years) diagnosed with diabetes in the previous 12 months, excluding known secondary or monogenic diabetes. Main outcome measuresType 1 and 2 diabetes defined by a combination of insulin treatment and endogenous insulin production (measured using C-peptide) assessed [&ge;]three years after diabetes diagnosis. ResultsEleven clinical features and routinely measured biomarkers discriminated type 1 from type 2 diabetes independently of diagnosis age and BMI. Lower age-at-diagnosis, BMI and waist-hip ratio, unintentional weight-loss, and higher presentation HbA1c or glucose were the most discriminative features, with other features only weakly discriminative. Models integrating clinical features with and without islet-autoantibodies, developed in those age 18-50 years at diabetes diagnosis, had high performance in internal validation (clinical features only: AUCROC (95% CI) 0.94 (0.93, 0.96), clinical features and islet-autoantibodies: AUCROC 0.97 (0.96, 0.98)), and maintained high discrimination in older adults (age >50 at diagnosis; clinical features only: AUCROC 0.93 (0.90, 0.96), clinical features and islet-autoantibodies: AUCROC 0.97 (0.94, 0.99)). Simplifying the models to a point-based score (the StartRight Score) resulted in similar performance. These models had higher performance than current clinical guidance. In UK primary care data models were strongly predictive of outcomes associated with type 1 diabetes, including in those initially treated as type 2 diabetes. ConclusionsLower age-at-diagnosis, BMI, and wait-hip ratio, unintentional weight-loss and high presentation glycaemia are the most discriminative features for diagnosis of type 1 diabetes in adults. Models combining routine clinical features, with or without islet-autoantibodies, have high accuracy and could assist clinical classification and prioritisation of classification biomarker testing. Study registrationhttps://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT03737799 Summary boxesO_ST_ABSSection 1: What is already known on this topicC_ST_ABSO_LIMost type 1 diabetes occurs in adults, but differentiating it from type 2 diabetes, which is much more common, is challenging, and misclassification is common. C_LIO_LIAge-at-diagnosis and BMI are currently the only clinical features robustly shown to distinguish between type 1 and type 2 diabetes at diagnosis; many other features included in textbooks and guidelines have little supporting evidence. C_LIO_LIGuideline bodies, including the UK National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE), have identified a need for evidence on what features discriminate type 1 and 2 diabetes in adults, and how these features can be combined to improve diagnosis. C_LI Section 2: What this study addsO_LIThis is the first study to prospectively assess the utility of clinical features for diabetes subtype at diagnosis. C_LIO_LIThe five most discriminative routine clinical features for distinguishing type 1 from type 2 diabetes at diagnosis are age-at-diagnosis, BMI, waist-hip ratio, pre-diagnosis unintentional weight-loss, and presentation glycaemia (HbA1c or glucose). C_LIO_LIMany features included in current guidelines were only very weakly discriminative of subtype, and no single clinical feature was able to adequately differentiate between type 1 and type 2 diabetes alone. C_LIO_LIA clinical prediction model combining ten routinely available clinical features, with or without islet-autoantibodies, as both a prototype calculator and a points-based score (the StartRight Score), had high accuracy in differentiating type 1 from type 2 diabetes and outperforms current clinical guidance and islet-autoantibody assessment alone. C_LI

SGLT2 inhibitor (SGLT2i)-induced diabetic hyperketonemia is a life-threatening acute complication of diabetes. While Celastrol has been reported to exert beneficial effects on obesity; its potential role in ketogenesis remains unclear. In this study, Celastrol administration significantly attenuates the fasting-induced elevation of blood {beta}-hydroxybutyrate. Moreover, a 7-day course of Celastrol (1 mg/kg/day) leads to reductions in body weight and fat mass. Mechanistically, Celastrol specifically downregulates HMGCS2 expression and suppressess hepatic ketogenesis through inhibiting PPAR expression in the short term ([&le;] 2 days). However, after prolonged treatment for 7 days, Celastrol modulates both PPARand serum free fatty acids (FFAs) levels. Furthermore, anti-ketogenic effect of Celastrol is abolished in Ppar{square} /{square} mice. Importantly, Celastrol effectively ameliorates SGLT2i-induced hyperketonemia. In summary, Celastrol curbs hepatic ketone overproduction in a PPAR-dependent manner, indicating its protective potential against SGLT2i-induced hyperketonemia.

ObjectivesAn update to the NICE Type 2 diabetes (T2DM) guideline in February 2022 recommended an SGLT2 inhibitor be offered to people with cardiovascular disease (CVD) or heart failure (HF) as comorbidities and considered for people at high CVD risk. We report uptake of this guideline in England 18 months after its publication. DesignObservational cohort study. SettingGeneral practices contributing to the Clinical Practice Research Data Link, linked to hospital admission records. Participants587,826 people aged over 18 years with T2DM on 1st September 2023, stratified according to their CVD category (CVD only; HF only; CVD and HF; high CVD risk score; low CVD risk score) and chronic kidney disease (CKD) status, and further by age, gender, ethnicity, deprivation, and T2DM diagnosis duration. Main outcome measuresPercentage of patients with a current SGLT2 inhibitor prescription; odds ratios for association between patient characteristics and a current prescription. ResultsIn people with T2DM, the percentage with a current SGLT2 inhibitor prescription was 19.5% for people with CVD, 29.4% for people with HF, 30.5% for people with both CVD and HF, and 19.9% and 20.2% respectively for people at high and low CVD risk. In age-stratified analyses, uptake ordered from lowest to highest was as follows: low CVD risk score, high CVD risk score, CVD only, HF only, CVD and HF. In models adjusted for clinical and patient characteristics uptake was lower in people aged >60, women, Black people, and people living in areas of higher deprivation. ConclusionsWhilst prescribing of SGLT2 inhibitors continues to rise in England, an opportunity remains to increase uptake and to reduce inequalities in people with T2DM in 2026. We report inequalities by ethnicity and deprivation, and lower uptake for people with CVD without HF than people with HF, despite an equal guideline recommendation for these two groups. Additional evidence is needed on the effectiveness of SGLT2 inhibitors in frailer populations. What is already known on this topic?O_LIIn 2020 approximately 10% of people with type 2 diabetes (T2DM) and cardiovascular disease (CVD) and 14% of people with T2DM but without CVD in England had a current SGLT2 inhibitor prescription. C_LIO_LIIn February 2022 NICE recommended that an SGLT2 inhibitor should be offered to people with T2DM with heart failure or CVD, and considered for people with T2DM at high risk of CVD; network meta-analyses have found 10% to 40% lower odds of cardiovascular mortality with treatment in these groups. C_LIO_LIUptake of NICE guidelines in general practice has historically been variable, although higher when accompanied by pay-for-performance schemes such as the Quality and Outcomes Framework. C_LI What this study addsO_LIBy September 2023 the percentage of people with T2DM with a current SGLT2 inhibitor prescription had reached 19.5% in those with CVD as a comorbidity, 30.5% in those with heart failure, and 19.9% in those at high risk of CVD. C_LIO_LIWomen, people of Black ethnicity, and people living in areas of high deprivation had lower odds of a current prescription in analyses adjusted for age, gender, cardiovascular comorbidity, and renal function. C_LI How might these results change the focus of research or clinical practice?O_LIThe results highlight the need for ongoing surveillance of uptake of NICE-recommended treatments for T2DM, and consideration of actions to address barriers to uptake. This is particularly important in the context of broader eligibility for SGLT2 inhibitor treatment in type 2 diabetes in England from 2026. C_LIO_LIThese results support the development of initiatives and quality improvement programmes to improve evidence-based prescribing and address inequalities between clinical and demographic subgroups. C_LI

BackgroundPET-CT scans of radioactive exendin-4, a ligand of the GLP-1 receptor, are claimed to provide a biomarker of pancreatic beta cell mass (BCM), although the GLP-1 receptor is expressed also in the exocrine pancreas (PX). Parotid glands may be a reference tissue for GLP-1 receptor expression in exocrine cells of the GI system. Our aims were 1. To assess biomarker(s) of BCM derived from 68Ga-NODAGA-exendin-4 PET-CT scans in participants with long-standing type 1 diabetes (T1DM) or in subjects with obesity (OBESE); 2. To investigate the relationship between biomarker(s) of BCM and a biomarker of beta cell functional mass (BCFxM) in OBESE. MethodsT1DM (n=8, Age: 50.4{+/-}3.8 yrs; T1DM duration: 34.2{+/-}3.0 yrs; BMI: 26.6{+/-}1.1 kg/m2; HbA1c: 7.5{+/-}0.36%) and OBESE (n=9; Age:48.2{+/-}2.2 yrs; BMI: 37.4{+/-}1.1 kg/m2; HbA1c: 5.4{+/-}0.17%) underwent two studies: 1) 68Ga-NODAGA-exendin-4 PET-CT scan of both PX and parotid glands 45-60 after i.v. injection and with CT-assessment of PX volume to compute biomarkers of BCM based on SUV (BCMSUV) or clearance (CLEAR; BCMCLEAR); 2) Mixed meal test (MMT), with measurement of plasma glucose, C-peptide, GLP-1 and GIP curves to assess BCFxM with state-of-art mathematical modeling. ResultsThe C-peptide response to the MMT in T1DM participants was absent or negligible, whereas the OBESE displayed a robust BCFxM. The PX volume was smaller in T1DM than in OBESE (51.7{+/-}6.6 vs 92.9{+/-}10.9 cc; p=0.007). The biomarkers of BCM, as assessed by 68Ga-NODAGA-exendin-4 SUV or CLEAR, were 6.6-fold (p=0.003) and 5.0-fold (p=0.002) lower, respectively, in T1DM than in OBESE. BCFxM was correlated in OBESE to both biomarkers of BCM (r=0.91 p<0.001, and r=0.82 p=0.006, respectively). Conclusion/interpretation68Ga-NODAGA-exendin-4 derived biomarkers of BCM can discriminate T1DM from OBESE. In OBESE 68Ga-NODAGA-exendin-4 derived BCM appears to be a pivotal determinant of the beta cell response to MMT and may be valuable to compare and monitor BCM both in research and in clinical settings. Research in contextO_ST_ABSWhat is already known about this subject?C_ST_ABSO_LIChanges in pancreatic beta cell functional mass are at the heart of alterations in glucose regulation, including diabetes mellitus. Beta cell functional mass can be assessed by mathematical modeling of the in vivo beta cell response to intravenous or oral challenges. C_LIO_LIBeta cell functional mass is the product of beta cell mass times beta cell function per mass unit, i.e. the result of two distinct entities, mass and function. No in vivo methods can dissect out beta cell mass and function. C_LIO_LIPancreatic 68Ga-exendin-4 uptake, as measured by PET-CT, has been proposed as a non-invasive biomarker of beta cell mass. However, the ratio of 3.6:1 between endocrine and exocrine pancreas 68Ga-exendin 4 uptake suggests that there is room for improvement. C_LI What are the key questions?O_LIDoes an improved 68Ga-exendin4 method provide a better separation between participants with type 1 diabetes and expected zero/nil beta cell mass vs people with nondiabetic obesity? C_LIO_LIWhat is the role of beta cell mass in determining beta cell functional mass in people living with obesity? C_LI What are the new findings?O_LIThe improvement in the quantitation of beta cell 68Ga-exendin-4 binding to beta cells resulted in a clearcut separation of participants with type 1 diabetes and expected zero/nil beta cell mass from people living with obesity C_LIO_LIIn people living with obesity, beta cell mass, as assessed by 68Ga-exendin-4 PET-CT scan, is a pivotal determinant of beta cell functional mass, as assessed by mathematical modeling of a frequently sampled mixed meal test C_LI How might this impact on clinical practice in the foreseeable future?O_LIThis method has the potential to track changes in beta cell mass both between-subjects and within-subjects over time C_LIO_LINatural history of glucose (in)tolerance and the impact of disease modifier candidates in diabetes mellitus can be assessed with the present method C_LI

Metformin has been linked to mortality benefits in type 2 diabetes that may extend beyond glycemic control, but population-level evidence connecting these benefits to inflammation-related pathways remains limited. Using NHANES 2013-2018 data with mortality follow-up through 2019, we examined associations between metformin use and four inflammatory markers, including neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), monocyte-to-lymphocyte ratio (MLR), serum albumin, and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP), and evaluated their relevance to all-cause and cardiovascular mortality. Among 2,122 adults with self-reported diabetes (60% metformin users; 2,116 with valid mortality follow-up), survey-weighted linear regression adjusted for demographic, socioeconomic, and metabolic covariates showed metformin use was associated with lower NLR ({beta} = - 0.35; 95% CI -0.57, -0.14), lower MLR ({beta} = -0.04; 95% CI -0.06, -0.02), and higher serum albumin ({beta} = +0.11 g/dL; 95% CI 0.06, 0.16); the hs-CRP association was directionally consistent but not significant. Associations for NLR and MLR were essentially unchanged after BMI and HbA1c adjustment, remained robust in an active comparator analysis against sulfonylurea monotherapy, and were consistent across propensity score and overlap weighting sensitivity analyses. Survey-weighted Cox regression linked metformin to lower all-cause (HR 0.64; 95% CI 0.48, 0.86) and cardiovascular mortality (HR 0.49; 95% CI 0.26, 0.94). NLR was independently associated with all-cause mortality, with the highest tertile carrying nearly twice the hazard of the lowest, and inclusion of NLR or MLR modestly attenuated the metformin-mortality association. Metformin use is associated with a distinct cellular immune-inflammation profile in adults with type 2 diabetes, supporting further investigation of non-glycemic pathways relevant to its long-recognized clinical benefits.

BackgroundInflammation-induced pancreatic islet-cell death and dysfunction are key aspects of both type 1 and type 2 diabetes. Stem cell-derived islets (SC-islets) are an emerging tool in diabetes research, however, our understanding of how inflammation affects SC-islet function is incomplete. We therefore aimed to thoroughly characterize how SC-islets respond to pro-inflammatory cytokines at the functional and transcriptomic levels in comparison with human primary islets and EndoC-{beta}H5 cells. MethodA 7-stage differentiation protocol was used to generate SC-islets with insulin-, glucagon-, and somatostatin-positive cells. SC-islets, primary human islets and EndoC-{beta}H5 cells were exposed to different doses of pro-inflammatory cytokines (IL-1{beta} + IFN{gamma} + TNF) including a high dose for up to 48 h and a low dose up to 144 h to mimic the intense islet inflammation in T1D and chronic low-grade inflammation in T2D, respectively. Differential gene expression (RNA-seq), cell death, activation of key signalling proteins, hormones, and chemokine secretion were determined. ResultsBasal expression of key islet-cell identity genes in SC-islets correlated well with that of primary islets and EndoC-{beta}H5 cells. In SC islets, cytokines dose-dependently induced activation of key proximal signalling pathways (NF{kappa}B, STAT1, and JNK), upregulation of major histocompatibility complex (MHC) class I, and increased cell death (cytotoxicity and caspase 3/7 activity). In head-to-head experiments, SC-islets displayed similar cytokine responses particularly as primary islets regarding induction of cell death, chemokine secretion, differential gene expression, and protein levels of cell death executioners (gasdermin D and caspase-7). Cytokines increased insulin release in SC-islets and primary islets, while diminishing insulin secretion in EndoC-{beta}H5 cells. Cytokines reduced glucagon release in SC-islets, which was partially restored by treatment with the incretin hormone glucose-dependent insulinotropic peptide (GIP) with or without a glucagon-like peptide 1 (GLP-1) receptor agonist (liraglutide). ConclusionSC-islets are highly responsive to inflammation with a high degree of similarity to primary islets. Our results support the use of SC-islets as a valid tool in inflammation and diabetes research.

Objective: Despite the complex and non-linear progression of diabetes, its shared pathways with atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) are conventionally described using models based on single time points. We identified longitudinal diabetes clusters before diagnosis using deep learning and studied their association with ASCVD events and mortality. Methods: We analyzed 157,670 visits from 15,871 adults (25-65 years) without diabetes from four pooled U.S. cohorts (median follow-up: 22 years [IQR: 9-30]). A gated recurrent unit model with decay (GRU-D) was used to predict 1-year risk of diabetes or censoring within 10 years, by learning longitudinal embeddings across 25 clinical characteristics and biomarkers. Parallel Factor Analysis-2 (PARAFAC-2) and Gaussian mixture models (GMM) were used to group longitudinal participant representations as clusters. Landmark time Cox proportional hazards regressions, relative to last observation in the training window, were used to study covariate-adjusted associations of clusters with ASCVD and mortality. Prognostic utility of clusters beyond the PREVENT risk score was assessed using Harrell's C-index. Findings were replicated in a fifth cohort. Results: The analytic sample was aged 49 years [SD: 11], 58% female, and 68% white; 1,202 (8%) developed diabetes within the first 10 years. We identified five clusters (Cluster A to E) that differed in their clinical characteristics over time. Cluster E (46%) had the highest cumulative incidence of diabetes in the study period, followed by Cluster C (40%) and Cluster A (38%). Cluster C, which was defined by older age, high blood pressure, and suboptimal renal function at the first visit, had higher rates of ASCVD (HR: 1.09, 95%CI: 0.98-1.21) and mortality (HR: 1.08, 95%CI: 1.00-1.16), relative to Cluster A despite being similar in age and BMI at the first visit. Relative to Cluster A, all other clusters had similar or lower rates of ASCVD and mortality. We observed substantial cluster effects for three clusters (Clusters C to E), which were based on only two cohorts. The two clusters (Clusters A and B) that included participants from all four cohorts were reproduced in the fifth cohort and showed similar rates of outcomes. Clusters did not improve ASCVD prognosis, relative to a model that included only the PREVENT risk score. Conclusions: Longitudinal clusters reveal substantial heterogeneity in the period before diabetes diagnosis, and their risk for ASCVD and mortality. However, clusters discovered may, in part, be explained by cohort effects from variations in recruitment and visit patterns after recruitment.

Background Lifestyle interventions can increase the probability of remission of prediabetes to normal glucose tolerance, but their economic value remains unclear. We assessed the within-trial and lifetime-horizon modeled cost-effectiveness of intensive and conventional lifestyle interventions in risk-stratified participants with prediabetes. Methods A health economic evaluation was conducted alongside the 12-month multicenter PLIS trial (n=1,105). High-risk participants were randomized to intensive (HR-INT) or conventional (HR-CONV); low-risk participants to conventional lifestyle intervention (LR-CONV) or control (only short single consultation; LR-CTRL) with risk stratification based on insulin secretion, insulin sensitivity, and liver fat content. Within-trial analyses estimated incremental costs per additional remission to normoglycemia and per quality-adjusted life year (QALY). Lifetime cost-effectiveness was modelled using a four-state Markov Model. Findings At 12 months, HR-INT and LR-CONV increased remission compared with their respective comparators. The incremental cost per additional remission was {euro}7,081 (95% CI: dominated-47,277) for HR-INT and {euro}4,278 (1,312-11,793) for LR-CONV from a health insurance perspective. A willingness-to-pay of {euro}22,000 (HR-INT) and {euro}7,500 (LR-CONV) per additional remission corresponded to 90% probability of cost-effectiveness. Neither intervention was cost-effective in terms of QALYs gained within the 12-months period. Lifetime modelling suggested that both HR-INT and LR-CONV are not only cost-effective, but also cost-saving, relative to HR-CONV and LR-CTRL, respectively. Also in the probabilistic sensitivity analysis, most simulations indicated dominance (71.7% for HR and 88% for LR). Interpretation Based on short-term economic evaluation, the interventions assessed were cost-effective regarding additional participants with remission, not for incremental QALYs gained. Lifetime modelling suggests cost savings for both risk groups. Targeting populations with lifestyle interventions to achieve prediabetes remission seems to generate good value for money in the long term.

Objective: Patients and physicians frequently focus on HbA1c and weight alone. We hypothesized that individuals with similar HbA1c and BMI may present markedly distinct metabolic backgrounds. We investigated whether the adipo-B index- composite of adipose insulin resistance (adipo-IR) and beta-cell function (HOMA-B)-can uncover hidden heterogeneity in this clinically homogeneous population. Methods: A total of 399 newly diagnosed, drug-naive Japanese subjects with T2DM were analyzed. Histograms of HbA1c and BMI demonstrated peak distributions within HbA1c 8-10% and BMI 24-26. Based on these distributions, a clinically homogeneous subgroup was defined to minimize confounding by glycemic severity and adiposity. Metabolic parameters including FBG, insulin, FFA, HOMA-R, HOMA-B, adipo-IR, adipo-B, T-C, TG, HDL-C and non-HDL-C were analyzed. Simple regression, multivariable linear regression, and subgroup stratification analyses were performed. Results: Despite comparable HbA1c and BMI by design, adipo-B stratification revealed significant differences in HOMA-B, FFA, non-HDL-C, and TG, whereas HOMA-R stratification identified only higher insulin and adipo-IR without differences in lipids or HOMA-B. Thus, adipo-B-but not HOMA-R-identified a lipotoxic, beta-cell-stressed phenotype invisible to conventional markers. Simple regression showed significant positive correlations between adipo-B and HbA1c, FBG, FFA, T-C, TG, and non-HDL-C, and negative correlations with insulin and HOMA-B. Multivariable linear regression confirmed that adipo-B was independently associated with non-HDL cholesterol, TG, and FFA after adjustment for HbA1c and BMI. Conclusion: Even among patients with identical HbA1c and BMI, the adipo-B index uncovers clinically relevant metabolic heterogeneity, supporting its role as a functional marker of the adipose-pancreas axis and a potential tool for precision phenotyping in early T2DM.